https://www.orbitfab.com/

So if SpaceX were to use a Starship as a dedicated propellant depo for the Artemis missions, that would count?

@Nat "independent commercial payloads" seems plural and the independent presumably means 2 payloads for NASA would not be sufficient but one for NASA and one for another customer (perhaps not SpaceX? not sure here.) would be sufficient.

Also both have to be before 2030 deadline of this claim. Will Artemis missions involving refuelling be before 2030? Hopefully but not guaranteed?

@ChristopherRandles Ah good point, thank you

Though yeah additional clarification on that point from @Isaac228c would still be nice

As for Artemis missions involving refuelling before 2030, I'd say the likelihood is quite high (though definitely not certain), but I'm not sure if we know yet whether SpaceX is planning to use a propellant depot or just refuel the HLS directly; or maybe for initial missions refuel HLS directly and then swap to depot for later missions?

Also not sure what Blue Origin's plan is because I know they require refuelling as well, I'm guessing that'll just be directly refuelling the vehicle?

This market has human landing at 70% before 2030, and there may be missions before the human landing that require refuelling

@Nat It looks like market creator is inactive, so might be the case that a moderator will need to step in.

@ScipioFabius Nothing to step in over yet. No starship refuelling yet. Orbit Fab "plans to launch its refueling service to geostationary orbit in 2025"

@ChristopherRandles Theoretically mods could step in to clarify resolution criteria so traders can bet with higher confidence, but given the long timeframe and the fact that @Isaac228c has only been inactive for a month, I'd agree it's unnecessary for mods to step in at this point

@ChristopherRandles Yes, yes, I meant to say that when a conflicting situation occurs, it would be neccesary.