If Manifold removes the option to send mana to charity or redeem it for anything else of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024?
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resolved Feb 28
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I'm not aware of any such valuation.

Also the condition didn't happen anyway, since we can still donate it to charity.

@IsaacKing we can't? Only sweepcash.

@MartinRandall Wasn't mana de-facto convertible to sweepcash via arbitrage?

@IsaacKing no. After the sweepcash launch there was zero way to convert mana to sweepcash

@jack Couldn't you just make a duplicate market in the other currency and bet in opposite directions?

@IsaacKing I don't think indirect mechanisms should count, that's not "the option to send mana to charity".

@MartinRandall Hmm, yeah, I guess if I counted that I'd have to also count arbitrage with Polymarket, but that couldn't possibly have been removed.