Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?
Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?
Plus
11
Ṁ2072050
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As of market creation, English is in the lead with 1.5 billion, with Manderin Chinese in second with 1.1 billion.
In the case of disagreement about what constitutes a language, the bar will be that of mutual intelligibility.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
What source do you plan to use? Wikipedia? Ethnologue? Do you have plans if they change their metric (who counts as an English speaker, and how they count)?
@Boklam Wikipedia, or another reliable source if Wikipedia stops being so.
In the case of disagreement about what constitutes a language, the bar will be that of mutual intelligibility.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will AI extend English before 2032?
59% chance
Will Esperanto be dethroned as the most widely spoken conlang by 2030?
27% chance
Will AI extend English before 2031?
53% chance
Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2025?
5% chance
Will I be fluent in 3 languages by 2030
20% chance
Will English Wikipedia reach 7M articles before the end of 2025?
99% chance
Will Tetra be able to speak any non-English major language by the end of 2025?
31% chance
Will >300k people know Esperanto fluently by the end of 2040?
29% chance
Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?
29% chance
What will be the USA's official languages in 2050?