Right now, Manifold is mostly rationalist/tech/EA/grey tribe aligned. Will that change, such that the people in charge and the social norms being enforced are significantly different? A few examples of scenarios that would resolve this YES:

• EA loses interest in Manifold and it's sold to some traditional gun-loving libertarians, who integrate it with crypto and remove all moderation.

• The Truth Social outreach is massivly successful and a large fraction of markets start being about Trump's companies and personal behavior, most jokes are references to Trump memes like "You're Fired", etc. Existing users are able to win huge amounts of mana, but the influx of all caps comments and hatred of non-Americans causes most of those people to quit the site anyway, since mana has no real-world value and they're not enjoying it anymore.

• Manifold.love attracts a lot of more traditional gender-nonconforming people, who start getting very upset about bigotry. Any markets about culture war topics are banned since "just asking questions" is basically Nazism, the admins are pressured into enforcing far-left-aligned resolutions on subjective markets, and everyone else moves over to betting on Polymarket.

• Manifold follows Robin Hanson's advice and turns the site into a method of employee evaluation. Big companies are turned off by all the jokes and weird stuff, so that behavior is heavily discouraged. Fun markets are banned, the AI markets are hidden from the main feed. Company employees see betting here as a job, and comments become dry and dispassionate, with no hint of enjoyment. Friendships can no longer easily be made and the sense of community is gone.

This market is similar to /IsaacKing/will-manifold-get-a-third-community, but more restrictive, as it will only resolve YES if that community successfully enforces its norms (either explicitly or implicitly) on the rest of the site.