Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

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Quantum computing is advancing slowly but surely towards being able to factor large numbers. Much of modern encryption relies on large numbers being unfactorable. Research is being done into quantum-safe encryption, but it hasn't really caught on.

If quantum computing gets to the point where people start being scared of it, and there's a rush to transition to safer encryption, this market resolves YES. If everyone acts wisely and updates their encryption far in advance of a quantum computer that can break it, this market resolves NO.

Yes, this is very subjective. I won't bet.

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PQC basic research funding is there, and plenty of research gets validated in existing SSL/SSH libraries. By the time it's needed the switch will be smooth for those who are prepared.

That said, nobody that matters will be prepared =)

The whole NIST PQC controversy is going to put a big damper on adoption for now, and then make the scramble all the more frantic when it happens.

@xyz Have a link to what you're talking about?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing Daniel Bernstein (cryptography celebrity) is suing NIST to reveal if they talked to the NSA about NIST PQC, which he suspects they did based on NIST's history of standardizing backdoor-ed algorithms. http://blog.cr.yp.to/20220805-nsa.html (skip to the Post Quantum Cryptography section)

According to you was the handling of Y2K timely or rushed?

@vluzko I wasn't old enough to be keeping up with it at the time, so I don't know.

The track record on updating to safer encryption in a timely, non-rushed manner is very poor. E.g. MD5, SHA1. I can't really think of any good examples of widely-deployed encryption algorithms being replaced before they were totally broken.

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