Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2030?
Plus
18
Ṁ13942030
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?
26% chance
Will Elon Musk be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
30% chance
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
5% chance
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
67% chance
Will Richard Heart (Richard James Schueler) be convicted of any felony crime before 2030?
42% chance
Will Andrew Huberman be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2031?
27% chance
Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
4% chance