Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes) | Manifold

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

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Ṁ1413

2100

78%

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This market, if it is still around, will resolve to YES in 2100. If you think that that won't happen, you can bet NO to signal that belief. This can't make you any mana (except from other people who bet NO after you), but it can show other people just how confident you are in your beliefs about the future.

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I’m pretty sure I’ll still be around, but if manifold doesn’t still have this market in 2100 I think it’s probably gone under and at that point mana will be worthless, so…

(betting NO) can't make you any mana

Literally false.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Fixed

>> just how confident you are in your beliefs about the future

or just how short my investment horizon is

my friend the actuary seems to think I'm not likely to be around in 2100

It'll make me money if manifold changes their loan payout structure to payout a percent of expectation instead of cost basis, as I keep hoping they will! 😉

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