Background
The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) is a state law requiring environmental impact assessments for development projects. Recent reform efforts include Governor Newsom's 2023-2024 budget deal modifications and proposed ballot initiatives like "Californians for Homeownership" which aims to limit environmental lawsuits.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if before 2026:
California passes legislation that significantly reduces CEQA requirements, streamlines the review process, or limits CEQA-related lawsuits at the state level OR
A ballot initiative passes that achieves the same effects
"Significant" reforms must include at least one of the following:
Raising standing requirements for CEQA lawsuits
Restricting the timeline for public comments
Creating new categorical exemptions for housing or development projects
Limiting who can file CEQA lawsuits
Capping development fees related to CEQA compliance
Minor technical amendments or clarifications to existing CEQA provisions will not qualify as significant reform.
Considerations
While there is broad agreement that CEQA reform is needed, previous reform attempts have faced significant political opposition
Recent reforms have been incremental rather than comprehensive
Environmental groups and local communities often resist major CEQA changes
The upcoming election cycle and housing crisis may increase pressure for reform
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