Data will be taken from the IMF after the end of Milei presidency (whenever it will be). The predicted real GDP growth for the next three years (as of the question creation date) is 2%. I will add brackets (every 2%) if the forecasts change significantly.
I commit not to trade on this question.
1,000
1.00[deleted]
@galaga Pretty much. I think taking a geometric mean is more appropriate in this context, as it translates to the average growth over the whole period. If he resigns/is ousted from the office before the end of term then the cut-off date will be modified. I might adjust the data for the half-month period in 2023 and 2027 (eg if something extreme would happen then), but I don't think there is a high chance of that.
@Jacek I think you should be precise about it now, so that if the percentage is near the edge of a bucket nobody has qualms about resolution later :) When you say geomean, you mean the fourth root of the total (compounded) growth over four years as a fraction, minus one, right?
@galaga exactly. If the IMF reports growth of 2%, 3%, 4% and -1% in 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027 respectively, then the answer will be computed as (1.02*1.03*1.04*0.99)^(1/4)-1=1.98%.