Resolves according to when I get an individual AI to do the majority (>5) of the below tasks. I will not put much effort into prompt engineering/elicitation; the spirit of this question is to get at when the below will be easy to do.

All answers after the year in question will resolve to YES.

I may trade on this market, but commit to having <50 mana invested in this market at any time by cost-to-me (I would like to record my beliefs, and am not particularly concerned with profit other than that). If requested, I will post the AI interactions which I used to resolve the question insofar as possible.

1. Pytorch (or Future DL Framework) Code Implementation

- Reliably implement Pytorch code upon request without user intervention, though scaffolding in the user interface is acceptable. At least 75% of the code must be ready-to-go.

- Implement (straightforward, but uncommon) code when given a library's documentation in context

2. Writing Improvement

- Anticipate and address critiques peers have, with at least 50% being useful.

- Propose clarifications that are usually accepted as changes by me.

3. Bullet Points to Text

- Write comprehensive content (blog post style) based on provided bullet points (50% success rate).

4. Learning Assistant

- Answer questions at the level a PhD-student TA would.

- Propose useful Anki cards, with the majority being accepted.

- Enhance Anki interactivity by rephrasing cards to cover the same topic slightly differently, aiming for a 90% acceptance rate.

5. Therapy Alternative

- Provide therapy consultations that are more useful than those from my current therapist.

6. Auto-Podcast Creation

- Distill economic and philosophy papers into podcast format for easy listening. Success is required 5 times, with the number of attempts depending on my willingness, which in turn depends on the LLM's quality.

7. Peer Review

- Offer feedback that surpasses the utility of critiques typically given by PhD students, especially in identifying missing experimental evidence or motivation, and possible graphic improvements.

8. Personal Activity Suggestions

- Suggest new activities (e.g., meditation techniques, exercise routines, movies) on a monthly basis that I actually engage in.

- Provide reliable book recommendations based on personal descriptions and additional information gathered, aiming for a higher success rate than other services.

9. Brainstorming/Debate Partner

- Serve as the go-to option for brainstorming research ideas, composing cover letters, iterating on ideas/arguments etc..

10. Creative Writing Generator

- Generate complete short stories from an outline or the first page, with the quality being high enough for me to willingly read the whole thing.

The sub-points are somewhat flexible, I'll try to stick with them but if it becomes clear that a model is very useful (for me) at the 'headline' task, I'll consider that sufficient.