MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?
➕
Plus
4
Ṁ250
Jul 19
56%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

#AI
#️ Technology
#Technical AI Timelines
#Science
#🇨🇳 China
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
2 Comments
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 NO

No, assuming you mean actual EUV, and not a similar-performance technology.

Correct, actual EUV

Related questions

[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
+24% 1d51% chance
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?
11% chance
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?
74% chance
What percentage (%) of ASML's sales in 2025 will be from China?
Will China have a domestic EUV maker by 2030?
60% chance
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
26% chance
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?
70% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
42% chance
Will a real alternative to EUV emerge before 2028?
46% chance

Related questions

[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
51% chance
Will China have a domestic EUV maker by 2030?
60% chance
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
26% chance
Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?
11% chance
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?
70% chance
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?
74% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
42% chance
What percentage (%) of ASML's sales in 2025 will be from China?
Will a real alternative to EUV emerge before 2028?
46% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout