I think it might tbh

@RemNi the policies they're putting in place now will have an effect in that time frame. 80% is a lot, but Germany is going in a pretty unique direction, especially post-2022

@RemNi

There's this graph to 2018, not sure if there is an updated version

The first half of 2023 it was 52 percent according to the gov: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schwerpunkte/klimaschutz/faq-energiewende-2067498#:~:text=2021%20lag%20der%20Anteil%20der,weiter%20auf%20rund%2052%20Prozent

@Jede Is this supposed to be closed, or should it stay open for trading until we know the answer?

Could you clarify whether this is talking about electricity, primary energy consumption, or something else? Do you have a preferred data source?

Just to be clear, are we talking energy or electricity? Both are very different, especially considering the large amount of gas heating in Germany.

As I understand it, the limiting factor is not so much the power production with renewables, but the restructuring of the electricity grid, which was built for few large reliable sources instead of many small less reliable ones. Is this conception still up to date?

That's my impression as well. My bet is based on the assumption that falling prices of batteries will make lags in the grid build-out increasingly irrelevant. Batteries next to spiky producers and consumers means that the rest of the grid can be sized closer to average flow instead of peak flow.

Probably too low.

Successful adoption of renewables in the past + political commitment + extremely promising trends in the prices of PV modules / wind generation should make one more confident.