Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?
Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?
Plus
11
Ṁ3512036
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves N/A if Will there be another positive leap second by end of 2035?54% resolves NO.
Resolves YES if the next positive leap second causes some bug on Manifold and NO if it doesn't.
For example, if trades made during the leap second are displayed in the wrong order in trade history, that would cause this market to resolve YES. However if all such bugs are fixed in preparation for the leap second, it would resolve NO.
Bugs in Manifold bots do not count.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
@MrLuke255 depending on whether you think this is a bug, it might record trades which were a whole second apart as having occurred "at the same time as" each other
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Manifold resolve this time-going-backwards bug by Feb. 1, 2023?
50% chance
Will Manifold resolve this time-going-backwards bug by 2019?
50% chance
Will Manifold resolve this time-goes-backwards bug by 2021?
50% chance
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
82% chance
Will I be banned at least once on Manifold before the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will anyone implement a system resembling the one described in https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-11-04 on Manifold by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will the described dynamic mostly stop happening on Manifold by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
50% chance
Smart contracts on Manifold by end of 2026?
15% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?
65% chance