The problem with this market is that I am likely to have forgotten about Manifold altogether by 2029.

That's just the deadline. The market will resolve as soon as we know one way or the other. Which is likely to be shortly after S2 drops next year, but you never know.

Oh gotcha. So if Netflix confirms that it is cancelled before then, you'll close it. That makes sense. I was thinking Netflix might just leave it in limbo for a long time due to the Neil Gaiman controversy but at the same time not wanting to give up the Sandman IP in case they feel like they can still use it in the future.

Neil Gaiman: Three Women Accuse Author of Sexual Assault