Kim Jong Un is 40(?) years old*, and according to this actuarial life table, a 40yo man can typically expect to live around 37 more years, giving an estimated death date of 2023 + 37 = 2060.

*Apparently there is a lot of controversy about whether Kim Jong Un was born in 1982, 1983, or 1984; I'm using the middle value of 1983 to be safe.

EDIT: fixing calculations to be consistent with the middle value

@duck_master Otoh he’s morbidly obese (especially for a Korean) and everyone wants to poison him, so I’d go lower than the actuarial table

This should not be a binary market.

@jskf Compared to multiple voice

Cons: this just gives the expected value, not the whole shape of the distribution

Pros: much lower volatility for investors, no arbitrary category boundaries

I'm not confident the market (if efficient) would necessarily even give the expected value, but I haven't done the math. Either way I think "the implied probability actually means some other thing" is a confusing hack.

@JonathanRay Isn't there a market type for predicting numeric values? I find those confusing for other reasons, but they sound more appropriate.

@jskf Numeric type is not an option anymore

@jskf I’m confident that if this market is efficient AND there’s no chance of survival past 2100, then the % will be the expected year of death

If I offer to buy 200k YES at 50% is that like hiring a hitman?

@JonathanRay https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market