/jack/will-ron-desantis-be-elected-us-pre

And then maybe 50% chance of a pardon?

The NY prosecution is proceeding in state court, the president can only pardon people for federal crimes.

It's possible to get pardoned for crimes that haven't been charged yet in federal court but that wouldn't change the outcome of the NY case at all.

@KevinBurke If all 50 states have a zillion lines of statute they can interpret with a zillion degrees of freedom to try to prosecute any federal politicians they don’t like, that’s kind of subverting the supremacy of the federal government over the state governments. It’s a big can of worms. Is there any case law on whether the supremacy clause implies the federal government can pardon state crimes?

@JonathanRay "There is a strong consensus among legal experts that a president cannot pardon someone for a state offense, as the Constitution notes “offenses against the United States.” In other words, state law enforcement authorities could review any criminal allegations, without presidential intervention, to determine if they rise to the level of a state offense." https://www.americanbar.org/advocacy/governmental_legislative_work/publications/washingtonletter/dec-2020-wl/legal-fact-check-pardons-1220wl/

You still need to get convicted at the state level which means convincing a jury...

@KevinBurke Convincing a state jury to convict a federal politician should be pretty easy if you can go jurisdiction shopping for places that are 95/5 against the party of the politician in question

@JonathanRay If that were the case I would expect to see a lot more prosecutions of opposite party politicians in California or North Dakota but you don’t.

@KevinBurke I don’t think it's been attempted yet.

BTW In this case Stormy lived in Louisiana, trump lives in Florida, and only the lawyer go-between was in New York. Do all three states plus the federal government get a shot at prosecuting this act of interstate commerce?