Will Portal 3, Team Fortress 3, or Half-Life 3 come out before 2033?
Will Portal 3, Team Fortress 3, or Half-Life 3 come out before 2033?
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IMO this should resolve NO; 2033 already came out in 2010: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_2033_(video_game)
The chart is sus. In the absence of good news it should be gradually decreasing, not gradually increasing.
TF2 community has a joke, that Valve lost the war against bots and it is easier to make TF3.
Talking about "decreasing". This does not apply by default to all things.
Let's say we have a student, which has a deadline. The probability stays constant, even if he has not started yet, because productivity increases in the last hours.
There might be is a hidden deadline for Valve.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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