I'm convinced that it's a sure thing (95%+ on YES), and this market has a lot of liquidity, but without margin trading (loans) I don't want to tie up a bunch of mana for four years. I don't think the market will be volatile enough to make much from day-trading it, either.

Here is a related market I thought of earlier today -- someone else can make if they're interested and know how to write the criteria about all the edge cases (I do not):

---

In what year will there first be a U.S. president born after Barack Obama?

• Not 'elected', but whenever the actual president takes office, by whatever means.

• Wikipedia says Obama was born 4 August 1961

• Obama took office in 2009 as the latest-born president. (The two presidents after him were both born before him.)

• Before 2009, the last time the latest-born president took office was 1993 when Bill Clinton took office. (The other guy in between, Bush 2, was born before Bill Clinton.)

I tried to make a list of the last few times this has happened:

2009 - Barack Obama, born 4 August 1961 (Trump and Biden were born earlier)

1993 - Bill Clinton, born 19 August 1946 (Bush 2 was born a month earlier)

1977 - Jimmy Carter, born 1 October 1924 (Reagan was born earlier, Bush 1 was born a few months earlier)
1961 - John F. Kennedy, born 29 May 1917 (Johnson, Nixon, Ford were all born earlier)

Before 1961, it was more common to elect a president born later than all prior presidents. It happened consecutively in 1953, 1945, 1933, 1929, 1923, and 1921. Some of those are large gaps, but they were all in a row.

---

See if there are some errors in that or whatever, add some criteria, make it Numeric maybe!??! I thought it was fun.

The gaps are huge! From 61 to 77 was 16 years, then from 77 to 93 was 16 years, then from 93 to 09 was 16 years.....looks like 2025 is DESTINED to have a new latest-born president.