Which regimes will survive until 2028?
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2028
91%
Russia
74%
Belarus
72%
Iran
50%
Venezeula
88%
North Korea
96%
China
72%
Cuba

Each answer resolves YES if the current ruling regime is not overthrown, dissolved, or ended (as determined by reputable news sources and Western government reports) by Jan 1, 2028.

Some examples:

  1. If the current leader dies or ceases to be the leader, but the same party/group remains in power through 2028, this would resolve YES

  2. A military coup against any of the regimes (even if done by high ranking members of the current regime) resolves NO

  3. A democratic election in any regime in which the ruling party/leader wins does not resolve NO, but if an opposition party or leader wins, it would resolve NO

  4. If the regime loses power and then regains it, that still resolves NO

  5. If the regime loses some of its territory but is still a functional and widely recognized/de-facto state by 2028 (e.g. Assad's Syria pre-2024) this would resolve YES

Current ruling parties/leaders:

  1. Russia - Putin/United Russia

  2. Belarus - Lukashenko

  3. Iran - Khamenei

  4. Venezuela - Maduro/United Socialist Party of Venezuela

  5. North Korea - Kim Jong Un/Korean Workers Party

  6. China - Xi Xinping/Chinese Communist Party

  7. Cuba - Miguel Diaz-Canel/Communist Party

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As my opinion, all of them show resilience despite various internal and external pressures. Their survival into 2028 depends largely on their capacity to manage dissent, economic stability, and geopolitical pressures.

@escape road, what is your choice?