This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
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1.00Can we get [some varation on Immigrants/Deportees]?
@ItsMe There's not many household names to highlight, maybe, but I feel like there's so many people that could be highlighted: Mahmoud Khalil, Rümeysa Öztürk, That guy who got denied entry to the US because he had a JD Vance edit, Kilmar Abrego Garcia, and those are just the ones that managed to be high-profile for a second that I can remember
@Marnix I am hesitant to add group options without very carefully thinking about if they might create messy resolutions where multiple things are true, so not going to do this immediately but it's worth considering
@Joshua I think the only multi-overlap thing i can see arising would be if it's something like "Refugees," which could possibly overlap between "immigrants" and "the victims of war." We don't seem to have any immigrants on here (Garcia and Khalid never got added).
@Joshua For example, Zohran Mamdani is an immigrant. What if he's one of the immigrants highlighted as a person of the year among several immigrants? I want to avoid risks of having to resolve multiple options to Yes as mich as possible
@Joshua Wouldn’t you need to resolve multiple options to YES in that case as well? Many people other than Mamdani would be person of the year (and certainly lots of people have bet on “Other” including Garcia), so you’d have to resolve “Other” to YES, but Mamdani should also resolve to YES. You’d be no worse off with the category than without.
@Gabrielle There's plenty of high profile immigration stories. Deportation prisons in El Salvador and Uganda, new detainment facilities across the country, ICE raids in major cities, the deployment of National Guard Troops to quell anti-deportation demonstrations, the Supreme Court decision to allow racial profiling, the mass revocation of asylum cases. US immigration policy has consistently made headlines around the world.
Still, I think the chance that immigrants or deportees would be named is very low. I don't think Time Magazine would choose a political subject when there might be any consequences for that choice.
Owner of TIME is friends with Larry https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sRkDq9Qo4I
@spider As in the office rather than an individual office-holder? I mean I could certainly see it argued either way - it's not Leo as an individual but it is a group that includes him