One of the primary issues in the WGA strikes is the screenwriters' concern that they will start losing significant amounts of work to AI screenwriting.

This market resolves YES if by the end of 2025 there is a broad consensus that this has happened.

WGA writers' average compensation/employment rate would need to be at least a couple percent worse, and it would need to be widely agreed that it is mostly because they are being replaced/supplemented with AI scripts.

I would ideally want to see several articles in major publications showing evidence that this has definitely happened by the market close date, not that it may happen or is just starting to happen. A wikipedia article uncontroversially stating that this has happened would also be strong evidence in favor of YES.

I'm sure this will be a topic of much debate in the coming years, so I'm happy to provide additional clarification on my resolution criteria in the comments.

I will not bet in this market.