Actually seeing some real mana on what started as mostly a joke market! I think this most likely N/As of course, but if it doesn't I expect the most likely result is for it to resolve to Kevin McCarthy after a major rule change is passed to let McHenry do everything the Speaker normally does, but without actually being the speaker.

As a non-expert in congressional rule minutia, I welcome suggestions for what exactly should be required for a rule change to be considered enough that it "would allow the house to continue operating as normal without a speaker indefinitely" as the market description says.

@Joshua

abolished through a rule package change that would allow the house to continue operating as normal without a speaker indefinitely.

To clarify, if https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-house-empower-mchenry-as-t happens, does that count? It looks to me that is probably YES because it would allow the House to operate as normal indefinitely. (My critiera in that market are specific to legislation, there's other stuff the Speaker can do, but any rules are likely to grant whatever necessary powers to the Speaker pro temp).

So, the markets think it's pretty likely to happen!

Will the House empower McHenry as temporary Speaker?

78% chance. Resolves YES if the House grants the power to oversee the passage of legislation to Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC), before the election of a permanent Speaker of the House. Otherwise NO. Context: https://www.axios.com/2023/10/18/speaker-house-mchenry-jordan-gop Any other speaker pro tempore does not count for this market. (Standard rule for my markets: the resolution does not depend on the close date. The close date may be extended as necessary.)

Definitely wishing I knew more about parliamentary procedure now! But I imagine that there might be many ways that that market might resolve yes without being enough to count.

The main thing I can think of is that it needs to be indefinite, and I believe I've heard a proposals to give McHenry more power for a specified amount of time before a proper speaker then needs to be chosen.

So if they only empower him for 30 days, your market resolves but this one does not.