Will Evan Vucci's photograph of Trump pumping his fist win a Pulitzer?
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2026
55%
chance

Resolves YES if Vucci’s photograph of Trump wins the Pulitzer Prize for Breaking News Photography by end of 2025. Resolves NO at end of 2025 otherwise. Note that it also counts if it’s selected as part of a larger collection.

Historically, there’s generally been 2 finalists and a winner.

Seems like it could be a historic photograph. There’s only be 6 times since 2000 where a single photograph won, as opposed to a collection (Wikipedia).

See also for either being a finalist or winning:

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Huh, looks like two of his photos won in 2021 along with 13 other AP photos of the George Floyd protests (Photos 11 and 14 of https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/photography-staff-associated-press)

Figured since the odds for finalist as of now are 68% I’d see what the odds for actually winning are

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