Will Hong Kong be an SAR of the PRC in 2050?
Mini
5
แน€135
2050
35%
chance

The Basic Law of Hong Kong says the city is "a part of the People's Republic of China, but it maintains legal and political systems distinct from those in mainland China until 2047"

Resolves YES if Hong Kong remains a Special Administrative Region of the PRC on January 1st 2050.

Resolves NO if Hong Kong is either independent of the PRC or a province of it.

If Hong Kong is a part of the PRC, not a province but no longer an SAR, this question should be resolved YES if it can be reasonably demonstrated that the Basic Law or something in the spirit of it is in place, preserving Hong Kong as constitutionally different entity within the PRC.

The converse is not true. If the city remains an SAR but the Basic Law is clearly broken, this will also resolve YES.

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