Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if South Korea begins construction on a nuclear-powered submarine before January 1, 2030. "Construction" is defined as the commencement of physical building work (steel-cutting ceremony or equivalent) on the submarine hull. Whether the submarine is constructed in South Korea or not is not germane, as long as the submarine is intended for Korean service. Whether the submarine is a Korean design or not is not germane, as long as the submarine is intended for Korean service.

If a submarine already under construction or already completed is diverted to South Korea, this will not resolve YES.

The market resolves NO if no such construction begins by the deadline. Resolution will be verified through official announcements from South Korean government/military sources.

Background

As of October 29, 2025, President Trump announced he has given South Korea permission to build a nuclear-powered submarine, with the submarine to be built in Philadelphia. South Korea still faces technological and regulatory challenges, including the development of a compact nuclear reactor that can be installed inside a submarine. The current U.S.-South Korea bilateral agreement does not contemplate the use of nuclear material for military purposes, so this would need to be revised. South Korea recently launched the Jang Yeong-sil, the first KSS-III Batch II submarine, built with national technology, demonstrating existing submarine construction capabilities.

Considerations

The timeline for such a project remains unclear. While Trump's announcement signals political approval, actual construction depends on resolving regulatory hurdles, technology transfer agreements, and bilateral treaty modifications. The project's feasibility within the 2030 timeframe depends on how quickly these bureaucratic and technical obstacles can be overcome.