This market resolves based on whether South Korea develops, announces, or acquires nuclear weapons, or is discovered to be pursuing such a program by January 1, 2030.

Resolution Criteria:

• YES: The market resolves YES if any of the following occur:

  • South Korea officially announces or declares its intent to pursue or build nuclear weapons (this includes government statements or documents indicating such intent).

  • South Korea successfully tests, develops, or produces nuclear weapons (including evidence of a weapons program or confirmed weapons production).

  • South Korea is discovered or confirmed to be engaged in active, undisclosed efforts to develop nuclear weapons, including uranium enrichment, plutonium reprocessing, or other related activities, regardless of an official announcement.

  • South Korea acquires nuclear weapons from another country or through any form of external acquisition, regardless of whether they officially declare or acknowledge it.

• NO: The market resolves NO if none of the above events happen by the close date (January 1, 2030).

References:

• https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/the-united-states-and-south-koreas-nuclear-weapons-program-1974-1976

• https://www.foreignaffairs.com/north-korea/why-south-korea-should-go-nuclear-kelly-kim