Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States conducts a nuclear weapons test before January 1, 2030. A nuclear test is defined as any explosive nuclear detonation, whether underground, underwater, or in the atmosphere. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Energy, Department of Defense, or credible international monitoring sources such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). The market resolves NO if no such test occurs by the deadline.

Background

The last underground nuclear test occurred on September 23, 1992. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, and since 1993, it has used a program known as Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship to maintain confidence in the "safety, security, and effectiveness" of its nuclear arsenal.

In an August 2024 video, the Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security (NNSA) Administrator stated that the United States has "no technical reasons" to conduct nuclear tests. However, President Donald Trump announced that he has ordered the United States to resume nuclear weapons testing "immediately," saying he directed the Department of War to match other nations' programs, with the process to begin immediately.

Considerations

Project 2025, despite its many extreme positions, stops short of calling for immediate nuclear tests, but does recommend heightened test readiness at the Nevada National Security Site. Some estimates from the Department of Energy suggest that it could take three years to get the Nevada National Security Site ready to conduct a nuclear explosive test, though assuring full compliance with domestic regulations, agreements, and laws would significantly extend the time required. The United States has not ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, though since the conclusion of the CTBT in 1996, nuclear testing has become taboo, and even those nuclear-armed states that have not signed or ratified the CTBT, including India, Israel, and Pakistan, observe nuclear testing moratoriums, with only North Korea conducting nuclear test explosions in this century before halting in 2017.