Will there be a clash between Taiwanese and Chinese Coast Guard ships in the waters around Kinmen in 2024?
Mini
7
แน€87
Dec 31
29%
chance

Clash: physical contact or projectile weapons fired (INCLUDING WATER CANNON). Reports of sonic or laser weapons fired will also cause a YES resolution. A loud speaker is not inherently a sonic weapon.

This is a deliberately 'low-bar' market primarily testing whether China and Taiwan are prepared to escalate the brewing trouble in Kinmen.

I will not bet in this market. I am avoiding defining the "waters around Kinmen" because I fear reports will not specify, but the intention is to refer to the waters that straddle the territory of China and Taiwan.

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Where do unsafe manoeuvres sit?

@24a below the threshold needed for resolution ~