Here is the report from the Sukbae Lee (L in LK99 presentation).

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/korean-lk99-variant-superconductor-partial-update-highlights.html

The class of room temperature and room pressure superconductors is real.

He and other researchers have formed a corporation and the success of the company and its patents is the priority.

IBM is the first company to start discussions.

Sukbae Lee believes the China groups have successfully reproduced the sample.

They have a video detecting zero resistance.

Sukbae Lee and his team are confident

APL materials review process : Ongoing

Patent registration: Ongoing

Why no samples and data? -> We are a corporation. Patent.

We are going to be proved by other researchers

There are still instabilities and other issues to be worked through.

There are currently limitations around a narrow range of magnetic fields.

Both Korea and China researchers added Sulfur to get the positioning of copper to be more consistent which is already different from the original LK99.

What happens if it's a mixed dopant like Copper & Gold doped or Silver & Gold doped?

@KTGeorge "plus Ag" could be enough to establish the difference, yes.

Note that my "superconductor of some classification" definition here will continue to use the "strict sense", only changing if the definition of superconductors change (which... itself would be interesting) as opposed to the slightly weaker "practical superconductor" definition I offer in these markets:

nonetheless is clearly based on the strategy of combining lanarkite with copper phosphide and baking it, using at least 3 of 4 of lead oxide, lead sulfate, copper, and phosphorus, at no less than 500C

the simulation papers suggest using gold or silver instead of copper could result in similar/better characteristics, would that count ?

@Odoacre "3 of 4" means that if it's, say, a combination of lead oxide, lead sulfate, phosphorus, and gold, then yes.

This should not be trading higher than the market on if there will be any instance before 2030

https://manifold.markets/AaronLehmann/will-a-roomtemperature-atmospheric

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

46% chance. To qualify, the material must act as a superconductor above 0C.

Surely some other copper-doped apatite with a similar mechanism created by a synthesis that requires less than 500C would fit the spirit of this question?

@sylv I drew the arbitrary cutoff point at 500C to disqualify a material that is only synthesized by means that do not require high thermal energy sources: no pouring crystals out of weird vats of goo in relatively "cool" conditions. Obviously if it has two routes of synthesis and one is "hot" but the other is "cool" it still qualifies.

Iris 23 already fills the bill.

@JordiCervera has anything they've made been shown to be a superconductor?

@JordiCervera The novel substance that would answer "YES" to this must itself have definitive replicated proof of being a superconductor and reasonable agreement in the scientific community. It also has to NOT be LK-99. You certainly make an interesting point, however! I'm sure this market's appearance is totally unrelated to the claims regarding "Iris-23" and it's purely coincidental.