Voter turnout is a key indicator of public engagement and interest in the electoral process. In recent U.S. presidential elections, voter turnout has varied significantly, with a notable increase in 2020 where turnout reached about 66.8%, the highest in over a century. Factors influencing turnout include voter registration laws, campaign strategies, political polarization, and public interest in the candidates and issues at stake.
Details:
Historical Context: The U.S. has seen fluctuating voter turnout rates, with the 2020 election setting a high benchmark.
Factors to Consider: Changes in voter laws, the impact of new voting technologies, social movements, and the popularity of the candidates.
Data Sources: Historical voter turnout data, current voter registration statistics, and polling data.
Update:
This market will resolve in mid-December once the election count is finalised. The source of truth will be according to the figures from https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/.
If the election count is not finalised by the end of the year, we will resolve anyways to the figure on the source at 23:59 PST 31st December.
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1.00Reopening, this market will resolve in mid-December once the election count is finalised. The source of truth will be according to the figures from https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/.
If the election count is not finalised by the end of year, we will resolve anyways to the figure on the source at 23:59 PST 31st December.
@SirSalty Could we just set like a date (possibly noon Dec 13, after all states certify their results), specify data source in desc (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/) then reopen the market? That would be much better than the current state of the question.
@Manifold @mods Some things to clear up:
As mentioned below, it's not clear whether we are using VAP or VEP.
What's the data source for the question? The link shows Wikipedia, but I thought we aren't using Wikipedia as the source for sweepstakes markets after Helene vs Milton?
When will the market resolve?
Another thing that can make a small difference is if all ballots are counted, or only those with a valid vote for the president.
There are multiple sources that are cited on Wikipedia in different places, each reporting a slightly different number for the 2020 election (and we can expect it will be similar for this election):
Federal Election Commission: 62.8% VAP
https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf (search 'Percentage of Voting Age Population casting a vote for President')
U.S. Census Bureau: 66.8% VAP (this is the number from the description, but it is suspiciously high given that it's VAP)
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/record-high-turnout-in-2020-general-election.html
The American Presidency Project: 62.8% VAP, 65.9% VEP
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/voter-turnout-in-presidential-elections
The U.S. Elections Project: 61.8% VAP, 66.6% VEP
https://www.electproject.org/2020g
This one has updated the numbers many times, they state that it was last updated 12/7/2020, but that's not true, an archived version from 2021 has 62.0% VAP, 66.7% VEP
https://web.archive.org/web/20210430220622/http://www.electproject.org/2020g
The differences could be because of different ways of counting U.S. residents who are not U.S. citizens, citizens with criminal conviction or U.S. citizens residing in other countries. There could be some difference in which ballots are counted, the Census maybe instead counts people who said they voted, there may be corrections to published numbers which some sources incorporate but others don't, ...
@FH7979e Thanks! I think it should be VEP. That was 65.9%, the others are obviously too high or low. 65% feels right for VEP otherwise this question would be worthless.