Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election?
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Yes if a US state legislature votes to give the electoral votes to a candidate who was not the generally recognised popular vote winner in the state or refuses to give the electoral votes at all.
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@NickHeinonen, you'll want to extend the market's close date to late 2024, it's currently set to end of 2023.