This prediction pertains to the event of any astronaut's death occurring during any phase of spaceflight, including but not limited to launch, orbit, spacewalk, re-entry, or landing, prior to the year 2030. The incident could transpire during any mission undertaken by any global space agency or private enterprise.
Resolution will be based on official confirmation from the respective organization involved in the operation. The event itself has to occur before 2030 UTC+1.
Additional clarifications:
This prediction specifically applies to the death of any individual who is part of a mission aimed for space, and the incident must occur in the direct execution of that mission. The determination point begins when these individuals board the spacecraft intended for their journey. If the mission proceeds as planned, the next time they disembark the craft, they would have completed their space travel.
For context, incidents like the Apollo 1 training accident would not fall within the scope of this prediction as the accident occurred during a simulation, not during the direct execution of a space mission.
Furthermore, for the purpose of this prediction, 'spaceflight', 'space travel', or 'space mission' is defined as any manned mission that surpasses the Kármán line, which is internationally recognized as the boundary of space, located 100 kilometres above Earth's sea level.
1,000
1.00I believe the very speed of space exploration and missions is determined by the extreme precautions space agencies take to be absolutely sure its safe for humans. And on top of that, such an accident is horrible PR, just look at the Challenger tragedy, it could easily set back the space race another 10 or 20 years. I believe the base rate for this happening in the next 6 years is way below 50%.
@FakeMoney
On the astronaut vs cosmonaut vs others. Yes.
Any death of a mission participant whose destination is space while in the direct process of executing that mission. The Apollo 1 training accident is a grey line; my current position does not include it.
Let's say the cut-off point is the group of people destined for space after the point in time when they enter the spacecraft taking them there, when if everything went according to plan, the next time they exit the craft, they would have completed space travel.
Let's also define spaceflight/space travel as any manned mission passing the Kármán line of 100km.
EDIT: I've added the clarification to the prediction description.