"Its Joever" ... unburdened by what has been

@Fion You've got a remarkably narrow bid-ask spread on this market...

Yes, I generally suspect these markets to be more wiggly than is justified. I don't know what the 'true' probability is, so I'm just making slow but steady profits from market making.

Unfortunately, Manifold fees eat up the profits you'd gain with a bid-ask spread of only 2 points.

I believe they only charge fees on market taking trades, i.e. they don't charge you fees if somebody else fills your limit order.

Oh, interesting! I hadn't noticed that.

Babydog is up in polls?

Trump’s win is almost guaranteed after today

Almost guaŕanteed is 90%? 95%? 99%?

10 days later, this seems to have already aged poorly. What a campaign...

Wild that there are zero bets during the debate, in theory one of the highest leverage points before the election

@KevinBurke the highest in theory, yes. In reality, no. Guess we didn't bet on the lengths some people will go to to make sure someone who's been president before won't be president again

Why is this market so off versus betting markets?

@Ronan Alternatively, why are the betting markets so off vs this market?

haha, yup same question.

Why the difference?

@Ronan I assume the real-money markets have Trump higher? They usually tend to give Republicans higher chances, while Manifold gives Democrats higher chances. I think it's because the user bases are different, and there's some wishcasting going on.

@PlasmaBallin Yeah exactly.

Bit odd though, would seem like an arbitrage opportunity if the money markets are wishcasting

@Ronan They're typically not that far apart once you account for opportunity costs and spread (Which can give something like 5% of leeway).

The trial likely will have little to no effect, but gasoline wholesale prices are also collapsing, as well as major retailers about to cut prices.

Iranian oil is about to get sanctioned in the foreign aid bill, potentially pushing up gas prices.

The hot CPI forcing bonds up and tanking the market plus Iran possibly striking Israel and sending up oil prices/possible recession seem to help Trump more than the Arizona abortion situation helps Biden.

Taking my profit from the ramp up from previous negative sentiment against Trump’s chances. I don’t see this going higher than uncertainty without a black swan event. I thought it would be inevitable that Trump would be the mainstream candidate for the GOP but now that we are here I don’t know what will happen next.

@PatrickDelaney The labor market is deteriorating fast from surveys such as NFIB, Kansas City Fed, JOLTS, NY Fed, ISM, and Household Employment BLS survey

@riverwalk3 Links to Sources = 10*(Assertions) = 100*("Go Google It Yourself")

@riverwalk3 Found one that I think you're talking about...? https://www.kansascityfed.org/LMCI/documents/10035/lmci_031224.pdf