Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Francis publicly declares that he identifies as gay. The declaration must be made through an official statement, interview, or other verifiable public communication. If no such declaration is made, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in 1936, served as the head of the Catholic Church from 2013 until his death in April 2025. Throughout his papacy, he was known for his progressive approach to various social issues, including LGBTQ+ rights. He made several notable statements advocating for the dignity and inclusion of LGBTQ+ individuals within the Church. For instance, in a 2013 press conference, he remarked, "If a person is gay and seeks God and has good will, who am I to judge?" (forbes.com) In 2023, he called for the decriminalization of homosexuality, stating, "Being homosexual is not a crime." (theguardian.com) Despite these inclusive statements, Pope Francis never publicly identified as gay during his lifetime.