Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Pope of the Roman Catholic Church exists and is/was alive at any point. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The determination will be based on official announcements from the Vatican and reputable news sources.

Background:

Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, passed away on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88 following a stroke. His 12-year papacy was marked by efforts to modernize the Church, promote inclusivity, and advocate for marginalized communities. (ft.com)

A papal conclave is scheduled to begin between May 6 and May 11, 2025, to elect his successor. The conclave will be held in the Sistine Chapel, with approximately 135 cardinal-electors participating, most of whom were appointed by Pope Francis. (en.wikipedia.org)

Potential candidates for the papacy include:

• Pietro Parolin: An Italian cardinal serving as the Vatican's Secretary of State, known for his diplomatic experience.

• Péter Erdő: A Hungarian cardinal with conservative views, currently the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.

• Luis Antonio Tagle: A Filipino cardinal recognized for his progressive stance and connection with the youth, serving as the Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples.

• Matteo Maria Zuppi: An Italian cardinal noted for his inclusive approach, currently the Archbishop of Bologna.

The election process is expected to conclude with the announcement of the new Pope by mid-May 2025. (time.com)

Considerations:

The outcome of the conclave is influenced by various factors, including theological orientations, regional representation, and the cardinals' vision for the Church's future. While the aforementioned individuals are considered frontrunners, the conclave's secretive nature means that unexpected candidates could emerge.