Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years?
Mini
3
Ṁ25
2033
51%
chance

Its hard to quantify this exactly. At least according to this article the (mid-term) damage in global economic growth was about 2 trillion USD (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html). Anything reasonable near that number counts. If you have better ideas to measure this, comment below.

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