Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the global economy experiences a recession in 2025, as determined by one of the following:

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially declares a global recession in 2025

• The World Bank officially declares a global recession in 2025

• At least two consecutive quarters of negative global GDP growth are reported during 2025

The market resolves to NO if none of these conditions are met by December 31, 2025.

• Update 2025-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Global GDP growth will be measured in USD for the purpose of determining two consecutive quarters of negative growth.