US Recession in 2025?
Plus
41
Ṁ79182026
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2025?
This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2024, so the ones that count would be:
2024 Q4 negative Q1 negative
Q1 negative Q2 negative
Q2 negative Q3 negative
Q3 negative Q4 negative
Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0
I will wait until the 3rd estimate for Q4 2025 is released, which should be sometime around the end of March 2026, plus some delay for FRED to reflect the updated figure.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
bought Ṁ40 NO
To help stat arbitrageurs make this market more efficient:
https://manifold.markets/turtlepurple/will-there-be-a-us-recession-by-eoy
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
61% chance
Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
60% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
62% chance
Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
26% chance
United States Recession by End of Q3?
34% chance
Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?
36% chance
US financial and economic situation at end of 2025
US real GDP growth in Q1 2025?
-
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?
56% chance