Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

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2099

25%

chance

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This question resolves to YES if the physics and astronomy communities reach a consensus on the question.

Aug 14, 9:40pm: We're using Carl Sagan interpolating formula

$K = \frac{\log_{10}P - 6} {10}$

where value K is a civilization's Kardashev rating and P is the power it uses, measured in watts.

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this is roughly half a million times more energy than humanity consumes currently

resolves to YES if the physics and astronomy communities reach a consensus on the question.

So if they "reached a consensus" right now, and if it was a concensus of "No", does it resolve NO? Or is the question intended to only resolve YES?

If it exists now, why not a hundred million years ago? If it existed a hundred million years ago, why isn't it type 3 yet?

This question can only resolve YES. The only way we could be technologically advanced enough to rule out any other type 1 civilizations in the entire galaxy is if we've already reached that level ourselves.

I'm not betting more because this is going to take a while to resolve, and I don't fully trust that it'll be resolved correctly.

predicts NO

I feel like we can be fairly confident there are none >2

Under which conditions would humans be considered to have produced a second K1 level civilization? If we manage it, does that count as a YES?

We do!

@Duncan I assume this is using the definition of "a civilization that can harness all (or almost all) of the energy that reaches its home planet". For us that's about 10^17 watts, and we currently use only ~10^12 watts of solar energy.

I know that's not Kardashev's original definition, but it's the one that seems to have caught on most strongly. (It's also very elegant, which I think is a plus.)

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