I will resolve YES if a novel computing medium (analog, optical, quantum, ect.) computer component enters market and is available and received by consumers by December 31, 2030.
A novel computing medium shall be defined as any computing machine not utilizing silicone (or other semiconductor) based transistors. The consumer device can be either a component (GPU, Accelerator Card, ect.), or a standalone device (Mobile Phone, Wearable, ect.), but must be purchasable for $2000, 2023 purchasing power.
Additionally Resolves YES, if any of the below markets resolve YES.
https://manifold.markets/henryw/will-the-first-optical-computer-be?r=THVjYXNUaGVsZW4
https://manifold.markets/AidenPetersen/will-we-see-analog-accelerators-in
1,000
1.00I believe this will resolve YES, since Moore's law is reaching it's physical limitations, and the demand for computational power (including novel solutions for reducing power consumption and space requirements) is still increasing.
https://ainowinstitute.org/publication/policy/compute-and-ai