This question resolves to YES, if either the federal government or any of the two chambers of parliament formally ask the constitutional court to ban the far-right party AfD which is currently polling at >20%.
Resolves to NO otherwise.
Related:
https://manifold.markets/LudwigBald/if-asked-will-the-german-constituti
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1.00@LudwigBald Just to make sure: If nothing happens by 2026-12-31 this resolves No? So the "long title" would be "Will Somebody Try to Ban the AfD by end of 2026?", right?
(a motion to ban the AfD has just been handed over. it would need to be passed before it can be handed to the German Constitutional Court)
@duck_master here's a source from a more reliable media outlet. Bundestag will debate on the matter, but it's not clear when.
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/afd-antrag-verbotsverfahren-bundestag-100.html
@kiudee Indeed!
I'm curious: At some point German media might start to care about prediction markets and trades like ours might affect the future. Chances are low, of course, but I still feel some kind of responsibility when moving such a market. Do you have similar thoughts?
@Primer Good question. I would argue that we already have a similar situation with polls right now. However, there we are at the mercy of their methodology and integrity. With prediction markets I would argue that the process becomes more democratic and less biased. I believe that the more light will be shown on prediction markets, the more liquid and hence accurate they will become. Such that no individual trader will be able to cause big movements.
@kiudee Yeah, agreed. I think the US politicao markets are already there. My thinking was: If Manifold gets some media attention in e.g. Germany, due to providing correct predictions for lots of questions, they might consider this a proper, correct prediction. When in fact it's just us two investing a little amount of play money.
@Primer yeah, I think German prediction markets are not that reliable, especially here with play money. They are not much better than the result of a WhatsApp poll in a group of smart friends.
@LudwigBald Yes, there are too few Germans participating.
With real-money probably even less given our gambling laws.