(This market was created partly with the intention of encouraging more Japanese commentators to benefit from the insight of prediction markets. I may add Japanese below later.)

This tweet and video in Japanese has discussed the possibility that Sam Altman's dismissal from OpenAI primarily stemmed from concerns about the "dual-use" of AI for military purposes.

The theory proposes the following basic flow of events (not comprehensive, I may add more detail if this market gathers steam):

- Helen Toner’s paper talks about 'dual-use' concerns where AI is used for military purposes, particularly with the US trying to join forces with Saudi Arabia, and OpenAI also being active in licensing the technology, which would be a 'race to the bottom' and dangerous.

- Ilya agreed with Helen, and was also concerned that the current Open AI might be heading in a direction that could lead to its use in war.

- The Israel-Palestine conflict made these concerns more salient and fanned the flames of Sam's dismissal.


Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to YES if by Jan 1st 2025, it has emerged that concerns over "dual-use" of AI for military purposes was the main reason behind Sam's dismissal. It will resolve to N/A if the cause is still basically unclear, and NO if another reason is generally considered to have been the cause.

I'll try my best to judge the consensus and resolve on my subjective understanding. I won't trade on this market.