Resolves yes if the Supreme Court holds that Donald Trump cannot hold presidential office in virtue of Section 3 of the US Constitution, at any point before the date on which Trump would be inaugurated. Resolves no otherwise (e.g. if the Court rules that Trump may hold office under Section 3, or that it lacks jurisdiction to hear the case, or that Section 3 is not "self-executing" and that Congress must thus vote to disqualify Trump).

Some background:

Ilya Somin, "Supreme Court Will Consider Section 3 Disqualification Case":https://reason.com/volokh/2024/01/05/supreme-court-will-consider-trump-section-3-disqualification-case/

Adam Unikowsky, "Is the Supreme Court Seriously Going to Disqualify Trump? (Redux)": https://adamunikowsky.substack.com/p/is-the-supreme-court-seriously-going-40f

William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, "The Sweep and Force of Section 3," Univ. Penn L. Rev. (2024): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4532751

Michael McConnell contra Baude and Paulsen: https://reason.com/volokh/2023/08/12/prof-michael-mcconnell-responding-about-the-fourteenth-amendment-insurrection-and-trump/

Akhil Amar interviewing Baude: https://reason.com/volokh/2023/09/06/conversation-with-akhil-amar-about-section-three-of-the-fourteenth-amendment/