During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown?
During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown?
Plus
11
Ṁ3342028
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves to yes if there's a zero covid policy lockdown in a major Chinese city that is comparable to Shanghai's 2022 lockdown due to pandemic.
Although it'll require judgement, a comparable one would have a complete ban in going out of home, major industries (semiconductor, electrical vehicles, smartphones...) closing, vídeos of police officers arresting people who ty to leave home, travel bans.
The question nonetheless resolves to yes if they lockdown due to other disease.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-plans-to-meet-with-biden-in-first-foreign-trip-in-nearly-three-years-11660318437?mod=hp_lead_pos11
"Some Chinese officials and foreign policy experts say Mr. Xi’s first international trip could signal the beginning of a relaxation of China’s pandemic controls to allow the resumption of business trips across international borders at a time when the country’s economic growth is slowing."
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will China have COVID lockdowns before 2026?
13% chance
Will any tier-1 city in China have a region which bypasses the great firewall by 2026?
19% chance
Will there be major global lockdowns before 2031?
31% chance
New pandemic in 2025?
10% chance
Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)
55% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
37% chance
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
63% chance