Well, this definitely should be lower, not that it's likely to resolve anything other than N/A

If by the DNC, Trump is a joke of a 3rd candidate, with no chances of succeeding, this market resolves.

Does losing the primary count as "unexpectedly drops out"? Bc if that happens, it's very possible he could "stay in" despite losing the party nomination which wouldn't count as "drops out" technically, it seems. Maybe rephrase: "If Donald Trump is not the republican nominee for President for any reason, will Biden...." if that's what it means.

@LesterCrafton The chance that Trump, if alive, maybe even if not, will lose the party nomination is slim. If that were to happen, he is unlikely in the extreme to just go quietly. I'm happy to bet without further clarification.

@ClubmasterTransparent So this is basically a poll for “Will Donald Trump die or rendered otherwise incapacitated to the point where he is legally forced to resign from the race from his unconscious state?”

It’s quite likely that Trump loses the nomination. Iowa is way closer than it appears.

@LesterCrafton obviously losing the nomination means unexpectedly not running

@MP Sort of. I doubt he'd concede the general election so I don't see him conceding the primary. Maybe he'll keep running anyway. And/or declare himself a non-Republican candidate He hasn't demonstrated a willingness to let the law be the boss of him.

@ClubmasterTransparent sure. But right now we have /BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican , so anyway, would be unexpected

@MP Thanks, MP. You're the market creaator, so I'll take your word for it, but it's not obvious. When Trump loses his party's nomination process, he'll likely continue to run.

@LesterCrafton I'll correct it, but if he's a joke 3rd candidate with no chances of winning, this market also resolves

lol of course that’s a lie.