If on January 31st 2025 or earlier a model has a score in the LMARENA leaderboard, the respective market resolves to YES.
Gemini 2.0 (flagship) resolves to YES if Google DeepMind implies that the model is their best Gemini 2.0 version, whatever that is called.
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Another question: You say the Gemini 2.0 resolves according to the "best" model. Does this include the "Thinking Mode"? So if Gemini 2.0 has an Elo, but a "Gemini 2.0 Thinking Mode" (analogous to "Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Mode") has been announced but does not have an Elo yet, will the Gemini 2 question resolve Yes or No?
For r1, would "r1-lite" count? Would "r1-preview" count?
For Gemini, would "Gemini-2.0-Exp" count, or does it have to be "Gemini-2.0" without the "-Exp" marker?