Fortunately for humanity, the COVID-19 pandemic proved to be not as bad as either the Spanish Flu or the Black Death, in terms of fatalities and lethality, and in terms of adverse impact on the global economy. In other words, we lucked out. But, will the next pandemic possibly be worse?

As there is no way of determining when the next global pandemic of this magnitude will occur, this question will have a moving close date i.e. it will close on the day that the World Health Organization officially declares that the next pandemic of this magnitude has occurred. For now, the close date is December 31, 2029, but may close sooner or later.

This market will focus on whether the infection fatality rate will be worse than COVID (which varies, but currently estimated at < 3% unless you are older than 75 by most academic literature), or whether it succeeds in causing a greater amount of total deaths than COVID (which according to WHO, is just under 7 million as of September 2023).

Information from WHO can be found here:

https://covid19.who.int

WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard

World Health Organization Coronavirus disease situation dashboard presents official daily counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide, along with vaccination rates and other vaccination data, while providing a hub to other resources. Interactive tools, including maps, epidemic curves and other charts and graphics, with downloadable data, allow users to track and explore the latest trends, numbers and statistics at global, regional and country levels.