In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?
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2048
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Pandemic severity tradeoffs include mortality, transmissibility, scale, and any other relevant considerations.
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@CarsonGale In the year: if I bet 2030, I only win if it happens in 2030 precisely. By the year: if I bet 2030, I win if it happens any time between now and the end of 2030.
@vluzko Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this distinction misunderstands how profits are calculated in this market structure. If the precise year ends up being 2030 and you bet "Lower" from 2040, you will earn profit.
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