By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
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Plus
442
Ṁ150k
Jan 1
3%
Before January 2025
10%
Before February 2025
15%
Before March 2025

OpenAI is expected to release a new flagship model called GPT-5 sometime this year or early next year, although Sam Altman has said that he's not sure if they'll actually call it GPT-5.

This market will resolve based on the official, confirmed public release of that anticipated model. If it is not named GPT-5 then Altman/OpenAI must make it clear that it is the same anticipated model which everyone has been expecting to be called GPT-5. If this is not clear, a model not named GPT-5 will not count for this resolution.

A test release like the GPT2 chatbots put up on Chatbot Arena before the release of GPT-4o would not count for this market, and neither would something like the preview release of GPT-4 through Microsoft Azure. This market requires a broad, official release which is either free or available at a reasonable cost like through a GPT plus membership.

These exact resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the question, and your suggestions are welcome in the comments.

All options in this market resolve NO as that month arrives until the anticipated model is broadly released and all remaining options then resolve YES.

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Before December 2024

@mods This also resolves NO.

Before October 2024

@mods This one resolves NO.

@mods "Before November 2024" also resolves No now.

@yetforever and so it shall be

Before October 2024
bought Ṁ144 Before October 2024 NO

@ManifoldAI Please resolve to NO

sold Ṁ62 Before February 2025 NO

Does o1-preview count?

I am somewhat annoyed that “give the public API access to a model which has not been released and has no plans to be released” is referred to here as “releasing” the model... the title and odds together got my hopes up for a minute. 😔

I'm not sure I follow, are you making some sort of point about GPT models not being open source?

It’s hard for the neural networks to be open-source (I'm sure OpenAI themselves probably doesn’t even keep their own “source code” lest they get caught red-handed with a provenance trail for scraped YouTube videos and pirated text bodies); I wasn’t implying anything about that.

I was referring to release of the models, actually physically publishing the weights and biases — releasing the model, as opposed to an API that provides limited access to the model.

Why did this close @ManifoldAI ? Should it be extended

Linked Multichoice version:

Does it count if it's called GPT-4z and it isn't actually any smarter than the original GPT-4?

@jim I would bet against that happening.

@ManifoldAI OK didn't read criteria properly the first time. looks good to me.

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