If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
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Plus
33
Ṁ1811
2027
5%
Banned in all cases
14%
Banned with exceptions
34%
Banned after 6 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
27%
Banned after 15 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
30%
Banned after 20 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
32%
Banned after 24 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
84%
None of the above

  • If a Republican does not win, this question will be resolved N/A

  • Multiple answers can resolve yes as follows:

    • "Banned in all cases" and "Banned with exceptions" are mutually exclusive. If either of them resolve YES, then "Banned after X weeks" will resolve YES.

    • If "Banned after X weeks" resolves YES, "Banned after Y weeks" (Y > X) resolves YES

    • If "None of the above" resolves YES, nothing else resolves YES (obviously)

    • "exceptions" includes life of the mother, rape/incest, and other exceptions that affect (cumulatively) <10% of pregnancies. If abortions for teenage pregnancies were be completely banned, and no other abortions were restricted, this market would resolve "None of the above."

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https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/if-donald-trump-wins-the-2024-presi-0e926d6d3d67 arb

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
If Donald Trump does not win, this question will be resolved N/A Multiple answers can resolve yes as follows: "Banned in all cases" and "Banned with exceptions" are mutually exclusive. If either of them resolve YES, then "Banned after X weeks" will resolve YES. If "Banned after X weeks" resolves YES, "Banned after Y weeks" (Y > X) resolves YES If "None of the above" resolves YES, nothing else resolves YES (obviously) "exceptions" includes life of the mother, rape/incest, and other exceptions that affect (cumulatively) <10% of pregnancies. If abortions for teenage pregnancies were be completely banned, and no other abortions were restricted, this market would resolve "None of the above."

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